16) Will the GOP retain leadership of the council?
17) If Mayor Greg Ballard loses his re-election who is to blame?
18) Assuming Melina Kennedy is the nominee and loses the general election, who is to blame?
19) What will be the total amount of funds raised and spent for the 2011 mayoral campaign?
20) Do the House Democrats have the cohones to walk out again before the end of the session?
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16. No way. First, those four at-larges are baseline races. Unless the turnout of 2007 returns (highly unlikely) the Rs have no shot at holding onto those races even if they win the Mayor's races. That alone puts them in the mnority. Then if you look at the district races, in race after race, the D's have at an R incumbent. The Rs have very few shots at D districts.
ReplyDelete17. Himself. After the 2007 election, Ballard should have realized he was given a gift and that to win in Democratic Marion County he had to govern as a new kind of Republican, one much more populist. Instead he turned over his administration to profiteerers and became the ultimate establishment, country club Republican adopting the Goldsmith model of governance. Now as he approaches re-election, Ballard has no issues to run on that can win.
18. I'll have to say herself because the only way Ballard beats her is if she commits a felony before the election.
19. $6 million.
20. No. But they really hurt themselves when they stayed out too long. Doing so caused them to lose the weapon another time.
16. Highly unlikely. The county Dems At-Large candidates have a ton more than the GOP At-Larges, and the same can be said for most competitive districts as well.
ReplyDelete17. A combination of the boneheaded policies of this administration, and a piss poor job from the county GOP in supporting him.
18. Herself. If she loses, there's not much else to blame. An election involving an incumbent mostly is a referendum on said incumbent. If the election becomes about HER, she has a chance to lose.
19. Paul's estimate sounds good.
20. Well, it's ending in two days, so I doubt it.