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Monday, February 21, 2011

Twenty Questions for 2011: (6-10)

OBSERVATIONS: Here's the next five:

6)  Will a deal be struck to keep CD 7 boundaries the same and if so, who were the deal makers who will make it happen?

7) Will Secretary of State Charlie White be indicted?

8) How many times will Mayor Ballard say "No Question About It" in his first debate?

9) Who will be former Prosecutor Carl Brizzi's first "political makeover" client?

10) How motivated is Baker and Daniels to support one of their own and will it hurt them in 2013 if candidate Melina Kennedy falls short?


  1. 6. The boundaries have to change. The population changed and the district will have to expand. It will be all in Marion County though, I do believe.

    7. There is a saying that you can indict a chair. The presentaiton to a grand jury is basically one-sided.

    8. What debate? I expect Ballard to only be dragged kicking and screaming into a debate when his numbers start falling.

    9. No one.

    10. The heavy favorite in 2011 Mayor's Race (not sure I understand the reference to 2013, an off-year) has to be Melina Kennedy. I think she has more of a chance of being upset, by underestimating Carson in a primary, than losing in the general to Ballard. A bet on Melina Kennedy has some risk, but not much.

  2. 6. If the Republicans mess with the 7th, there will be all kinds of protests and heck to pay.

    7. I think he will be.

    8. I agree with Paul. Ballard will only debate when he has to. Probably once in October.

    9. Charlie White

    10. Good question that I can't answer because I don't work at B & D.

  3. The population of any Indiana Congressional District has to be roughly 722,000 people. Marion County has considerably more than that. The six northern townships would do it more or less...

    Anybody putting any credence in the viability of a Sam Carson Sr candidacy (even for dog-catcher) is totally unhinged and delusional...

  4. Wilson, as much as I admire your political wisdon. Do not underestimate the people who vote. You are very close to the situation.99.5% of the voters out there have no idea what a slated candidate is.But they will hear the name carson and they will remember all of the things that Julia did for them.

    The carson name is gold in Marion County. A rich white woman who is an attorney or a broke black man with the name of Carson...what do you think. Remember Wilson, you are close to the situation.But take yourself out of your position and see what happens.

    Andre had not much polit8ical experience or government experience at all. If his name was Brown would he have been elected? NO.He got elected on his name and his name alone

    Carson could be a player in this election

  5. I can be unhinged and delusional while bstill eing exactly right. Never estimate the power of a well-known last name on the ballot. I remember when Ann Delaney was slated for Congress and got absolutely killed by Julia Carson. I remember how the well-known name Marvin Scott continues to beat Republican slated candidates for the nomination.

    The notion that voters are well-informed and go to the polls to cast an intelligent ballot for the best candidate is wishful thinking. It's not that easy.

  6. Anon 2:49 is exactly right. Wilson is too close to the situation to understand the difficulties running against the Carson name.

    People outside of the people in the organization do not care about slating. (And it's even losing some power among them.) The power of slating is to whittle down the no longer bestows credibility with primary voters like it once did.

    Sam Carson has the name and he is also a very presentable, intelligent candidate to boot. He's not an "easy out" as people would like to think.

  7. Paul, I think you are underestimating the voting public if you think that they will "confuse" Sam Carson with a viable candidate. In addition, I think you underestimate the resources that being on the slate of either party brings to a candidate. Yes, some well funded candidates occasionally beat the slate but it is rare.

  8. Anon 9:25: It depends on the race, but actually poorly funded candidates have beaten the slate. For example, I believe it Linda Brown who won a judgeship while not slated. She is female, very high on the ballot with a common last name. Those things make a difference.

    The party itself doesn't bring a lot of resources to the race anymore. 90% of the money Kennedy will spend will be her money, not money coming from the party organziation. It's also not like the old days when defending the slate motived PCs throughout the county. You go to the polls today and you're lucky to find a PC working.

    I'm not saying Sam Carson is going to win. I don't think he will. But it would be extremely foolish to think a Kennedy victory over Sam Carson
    would be a caekwalk, lilke you and some others think. You are WAY overestimating the number of informed voters who go to the polls. Kennedy will have to work hard to win the primary against Same Carson. It will in the end make her a better candidate.

  9. I would add, Anon 9:25, the situation is not that the matchup between Kennedy-Sam Carson is in many respects simliar to the Delaney-Julia Carson matchup for the 10th District nomination several years ago.. You have two white female attorneys taking on the Carson machine in a Democratic primary. Ann Delaney was, like Kennedy, is, extremely well connected to Democratic insiders.
    Kennedy, like Delaney,is the slated candidate and Kennedy, like Delaney, will far outraise her Carson opponent. You haven't made a real compelling case why Sam Carson isn't capable of the same thing Julia Carson pulled off in beating the slated Democrat.

  10. Julia Carson was the slated candidate, NOT Delaney. She had the party grassroots on her side so Ann didn't even try to get slated. She knew she'd lose. Delaney out-raised her but Julia had the machinery and the grassroots.

    Sam has absolutely no political organization or funding. He's never run for office before and was rarely seen around Julia's campaigns. Melina has been running hard for this position for over a year -- Sam just starting thinking about this a month ago or so.

  11. Well Ogden, why don’t you look into the corruption involved with the release of convicted child killer, Hope Rippey? Who financed her attorney?
    We know it was a politician related to the “Front Porch Program”, the “Reentry Program” and has a husband with the sheriff’s dept. who removed Hope Rippey from the violent offenders registry and also has a habit of threatening people with collecting their DNA and using it against them should they disagree with their corrupt politics.
    Is it a new rule there in Indiana for your politicians to use public funds to stalk, slander, harass anyone who disagrees with their corruption?
    Are we now a part of the same politics as the old Soviet Union of the 50’s when they had to be afraid of the KGB?

    Who is Martha Adams? And who financed the early release of Shanda Sharers murder Hope Rippey?
    Who financed the attempted release of Melinda Loveless? Simply because they became born again in prison and joined a church related to the Reentry Program and because they are high profile convicts than could add funding to political special interests.

    Funny, the name “Adams” is prominently related to all the above programs, including the Sheriff’s Dept..